Stanley Druckenmiller interview note

Crypto Renaissance if Central Banks lost trust

Stanley Druckenmiller has a long interview with CNBC. It seems that Druckenmiller comes out frequently recently, I am curious the reason behind the action. Whatever, his viewpoint is the most important reference to watch economy [except for PTJ], so need to check

Here is the full transcript of interview

FED decision of late-2020 was horrible in risk/reward

FED can make wrong monetary policy decisions. However, after the vaccine was announced, the action that FED had to take was very obvious. Tightening. If they were wrong, the risk taken is not big because the CPI was already around 2%. Risk for inflation undershooting was low, but risk for inflation overshooting was high. 5T QE, 5T fiscal stimulus, declining TGA mean US economy can be unsustainably hot

Long-term should be interpreted carefully in stock market return

People say the stock market generates juicy returns in the long-term. Druckenmiller agrees on the notion, but the long-term means much longer than people think. 1929-1954, 1966-1982 period generated 0 return for index investors. People are a little complacent on this matter. Investors have had hurricane force behind them for 30-40 years, and it is reversing

He has no BTC, but bullish for crypto if CB lost credibility

It is tough to own BTC-ish assets in a CB tightening environment. If people do not trust the central banks, the Renaissance of crypto will come again